Is Trump Projected To Win The 2024 Election. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added. Developed with the assistance of a team of political scientists led by andrew gelman of columbia university, our model calculates kamala harris’s and donald trump’s probabilities of winning.
Both harris and trump have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election.
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